Abstract
A Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is a kind of hybrid electric vehicles, which can be charged from the electric grid
and can provide several ten kilometers of all-electric driving range. Due to recent introduction of HEVs and development of
advanced batteries such as the lithium-ion battery, PHEVs are expected as good candidates to reduce oil consumption and
CO2 emission in Japan. The diffusion of PHEVs would cause the cost reduction of the battery and promote all electric
vehicles (EVs). The purpose of this study is to analysis the economic advantage and ecological effects of not only PHEVs but
also EVs in Japan considering utilization patterns for vehicle types and the electricity supply mixture. The results are as
follows: (1) When the total of vehicle cost and discounted fuel cost is minimized, PHEVs will become widespread after 2010,
and EVs will account for 90% for mini-passenger vehicles after 2040. EVs will not dominate in the other vehicle types. (2) In
the case of (1), it will reduce CO2 emission by about 150 million t-CO2 in 2050 compared with that of all gasoline vehicles in
2050．(3) Additional CO2 reduction by the introduction of EV is not expected without the increment of zero carbon power
generation such as nuclear.
