抄録
This paper develops long-term projections on energy supply and demand up to 2035 with particular focus on Middle East countries, based on the analyses of world trends that are already evident or expected to emerge in the future, and describes the methodology of forecast and major projected results of the energy demand and supply. In Reference Scenario, the Middle East countries’ primary energy consumption will grow at a rate of 2.2% per annum in the period up to 2035, from 592 Mtoe in 2008 to 1075 Mtoe in 2035. More than 50% of the expected increase in primary energy consumption will be accounted for by increases in Saudi Arabia and Iran. Vigorous growth of electricity demand in Middle East is expected to 2035 on the back of economic growth and population increase. Therefore, future profile of power generation mix is considered as influential factor in energy outlook. In Technologically Advanced Scenario, which assumes that all Middle East countries take technological advanced measures and that accelerated R&D encourage global deployment of advanced technologies, primary energy consumption will decrease by 13% compared with the Reference Scenario in 2035.
