Abstract
This paper aims to forecast the demand of dysprosium (Dy), a rare earth element, which being broadly used in automobiles, home appliances, HDD, etc, using ratio of dysprosium-carrying end-use products, weight ratio of dysprosium in end-use products, production of end-use products. Moreover, the new methodology was proposed and evaluated, which able to estimate quantitatively the influence of the strategies, for example, changes in recycling ratio or Dy ratio in end-use application. From the result, 740-780 (t/y) of domestic Dy demand was forecasted to be reduced, by producing Dy less permanent magnet and recycling in 2030.
This new method was validated by evaluating the relationship between the future scenario of the Dy-less strategy, and domestic Dy demand forecast. The result of this paper evidently confirms that Rare Earth demand forecast for each end use products is useful for strategy making of critical material security.
