Abstract
Energy demand will change in the structure due to population declining and aging. Communities where residents are not moved dynamically are more vulnerable to the problems. The energy demand transformation could shift the suitable energy system for residences and communities in long-term.
This study is aimed at establishing a simulation model to estimate hourly and seasonal energy demands at a residence and in a community in the coming 50 years. In the estimate, we took three steps. First, we developed a population and family dynamics model to generate profiles of people and families. Next, we simulated the members’ actions for each family. Final, from the family members’ actions, we estimated energy demand inside and outside the house and for traveling.
The estimate result shows energy demand at a residence where currently young parents and children live will decrease around 30 percent until 2060 due to family members’ aging. While this decrease is not significant for the family itself, energy service companies, residential developers, and governments should consider its impact.
