Development of a Long-term Mineral Balance Model with Energy Consumption for Evaluating Sustainable Supply of Non-ferrous Mineral Resources

Abstract

This study develops a mineral resources balance model for evaluating demand and supply structure of mineral resources such as copper, zinc, and lead, to assess sustainable supply of the resources up to 2100. The model constitutes from two parts; one is demand forecast from which the derived demands are exogenously given to the other model, supply side model. The supply side model calculates the amount of such as mineral resource production, recycled materials, and energy consumption via minimizing discounted sum of supply cost of the resources. Results indicate that the demand of copper, zinc, and lead in 2100 increases by some 2 to 5 times compared with those in 2010, and that mineral production peaks out around 2030 to satisfy the demand by scrap recycling. Major part of the energy consumption increase is by copper, which increases by some 3 times in 2090 and by about 10 times in 2100 respectively, compared with those in 2010. This study clarifies that the depletion of copper, zinc, and lead of present day price level would be listed as an agenda in social concerns, and that challenge is reduction of energy consumption growth in mineral metallurgy due to ore grade degradation.