Development of a CO₂ and Exhaust Emission Evaluation Model to Consider Non-monetary Value in the Long-term

Abstract

The Japanese global warming gas reduction target for 2030 is set at 26% (based on 2013). In the Japanese transport sector, the global warming gas reduction target is set at 28%, so this target is higher than the Japanese average CO₂reduction target. It is necessary to take immediate action on these measures. One of the CO₂ reduction measurements is the spreading of next generation cars. Evaluation of spreading next generation cars has focused on the evaluation of hybrid cars in past studies. Hybrid cars can be evaluated using cost and line-up number, which are relatively easy to quantify. However, it is necessary to also evaluate electric cars and fuel cell cars that have the possibility to become cars which will spread in the future. Evaluation methods of electric cars and fuel cell cars need to consider infrastructure, distance of full charging, and the segmentation of annual driving distance range. In addition, the problem of air pollution has been in focus and measures are also being carried out in parallel with global warming measures. However, evaluation of exhaust emissions（NOx, NMHC, CO, PM）to consider the cost effectiveness perspective has not yet been studied in the automobile sector. Therefore, a method that can include cost-effectiveness of exhaust emission measures is necessary. In this study, we developed an evaluation method of cost-effectiveness to consider the nonmonetary-value factors with monetary-value factors in each annual driving distance range in the long term. This method can more realistically show consumer preference to evaluate penetration of conventional cars and next generation cars. This study can evaluate CO₂ and exhaust emissions to use future technology automobile data for reducing various exhaust emission and energy consumption. Finally, in order to consider the practicality of this newly developed method, we assume two scenarios: a planning regulation case and a technology advance case. The two scenarios evaluate the number of cars and energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, NOx emissions, and annual total cost.