LFC調整力を考慮した電源構成モデルによる2040年の電源構成の分析と政策課題に関する検討

抄録

This paper analyzes a power generation mix in 2040 with a model considering load-frequency control and reserves (corresponding to secondary control reserve or FRR). The current amount of renewable energy approved by FIT are unevenly distributed in Japan. If we assume that renewable energy will be expanding at the current growth rate, a total amount of renewable energy may be limited by the system constrains including control reserve and capacities of interconnection in the future. The results illustrate regional differences of 9 Electric Companies with respect to network configurations and power generation facilities. Local areas, which already have many renewable energy facilities, will reveal their limits to accept further renewable in their power system even with additional amounts of energy storage systems. In urban areas such as Tokyo Electric Power Co., there will be room for additional introductions of intermittent renewable energy. This paper also describes policy implications based on the analysis results. Future energy policies should consider projections of power system reserves and technological developments to encourage stakeholders to realize optimal power generation mix in order to achieve GHG emissions target of 2050.