Abstract
In this study, assuming the power supply portfolio in Japan in 2050, we conducted a model analysis to achieve carbon neutrality while supplying the required amount of power. The energy model developed in this paper is an integrated model which combines an optimal power generation mix model and an econometric model.
The results show considerable discrepancies between the “optimal” power generation mix in terms of total power system cost and that in terms of GDP. For example, in cases with possible new construction of nuclear power plants, the total system cost increases by JPY 1.6 trillion from a case with the hydrogen price at JPY 20/Nm3 to a case with the price at JPY 40/Nm3, while GDP decreases by JPY 0.9 trillion. This implies that low prices of imported fuels may result in the loss of national welfare, if they lead directly to increased imports of power generation fuels and declines in energy self-sufficiency.
