期待度分析を用いたシナリオ評価法の提案

抄録

Today, experience vision and other methods that apply the structured scenario method are used to support innovative proposals. The evaluation of scenario proposals has been a challenge. This study aims to solve this problem. The starting point for this research on evaluation methods was the concept of customer satisfaction analysis. This concept is based on a time axis from the past to the present, but we thought that it could be applied to a time axis from the present to the near future. In other words, we devised a new portfolio analysis of expectations. As an example of this research, an analysis was conducted on the theme of “hydration”. As a result, a comparative analysis of four different scenario proposals was possible. Furthermore, the ranking of multiple scenario alternatives was also made possible through the numerical quantification that was devised. We also showed that this quantification can be applied to a comparative evaluation between a pair of scenario alternatives.