Forward and Inverse Modelling of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide Using MIROC4-Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model

Prabir K. PATRA; Edward J. DLUGOKENCKY; James W. ELKINS; Geoff S. DUTTON; Yasunori TOHJIMA; Motoki SASAKAWA; Akihiko ITO; Ray F. WEISS; Manfredi MANIZZA; Paul B. KRUMMEL; Ronald G. PRINN; Simon O'DOHERTY; Daniele BIANCHI; Cynthia NEVISON; Efisio SOLAZZO; Haeyoung LEE; Sangwon JOO; Eric A. KORT; Suman MAITY; Masayuki TAKIGAWA

doi:10.2151/jmsj.2022-018

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Forward and Inverse Modelling of Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide Using MIROC4-Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model

PATRA Prabir K., DLUGOKENCKY Edward J., ELKINS James W., DUTTON Geoff S., TOHJIMA Yasunori, SASAKAWA Motoki, ITO Akihiko, WEISS Ray F., MANIZZA Manfredi, KRUMMEL Paul B., PRINN Ronald G., O'DOHERTY Simon, BIANCHI Daniele, NEVISON Cynthia, SOLAZZO Efisio, LEE Haeyoung, JOO Sangwon, KORT Eric A., MAITY Suman, TAKIGAWA Masayuki

著者情報

PATRA Prabir K.
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba, Japan
DLUGOKENCKY Edward J.
Global Monitoring Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado, USA
ELKINS James W.
Global Monitoring Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Colorado, USA
DUTTON Geoff S.
Global Monitoring Laboratory, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Colorado, USA
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Colorado, USA
TOHJIMA Yasunori
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
SASAKAWA Motoki
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
ITO Akihiko
Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
WEISS Ray F.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, California, USA
MANIZZA Manfredi
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, California, USA
KRUMMEL Paul B.
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Australia
PRINN Ronald G.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts, USA
O'DOHERTY Simon
School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, UK
BIANCHI Daniele
Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, University of California, California, USA
NEVISON Cynthia
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Colorado, USA
SOLAZZO Efisio
Unisystems Information Technologies, Belgium
LEE Haeyoung
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, South Korea
JOO Sangwon
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, South Korea
KORT Eric A.
Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Michigan, USA
MAITY Suman
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan
TAKIGAWA Masayuki
Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan

キーワード: nitrous oxide (N₂O), MIROC4-Atmospheric Chemistry-Transport Model, inverse modelling, global and regional N₂O emissions

ジャーナルオープンアクセス早期公開
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論文ID: 2022-018

DOI https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2022-018

この記事には本公開記事があります。

The final version of this article is now available: Vol. 100 (2022), No. 2 pp. 361-386

詳細

抄録

Atmospheric nitrous oxide (N₂O) contributes to global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion, so reducing uncertainty in estimates of emissions from different sources is important for climate policy. Here, we simulate atmospheric N₂O using an atmospheric chemistry-transport model (ACTM), and the results are first compared with the in situ measurements. Five combinations of known (a priori) N₂O emissions due to natural soil, agricultural land, other human activities and sea-air exchange are used. The N₂O lifetime is 127.6 ± 4.0 yr in the control ACTM simulation (range indicate interannual variability). Regional N₂O emissions are optimised by Bayesian inverse modelling for 84 partitions of the globe at monthly intervals, using measurements at 42 sites around the world covering 1997-2019. The best estimate global land and ocean emissions are 12.99 ± 0.22 and 2.74 ± 0.27 TgN yr⁻¹, respectively, for 2000-2009, and 14.30 ± 0.20 and 2.91 ± 0.27 TgN yr⁻¹, respectively, for 2010-2019. On regional scales, we find that the most recent ocean emission estimation, with lower emissions in the Southern Ocean regions, fits better with that predicted by the inversions. Marginally higher (lower) emissions than the inventory/model for the tropical (extra-tropical) land regions is estimated and validated using independent aircraft observations. Global land and ocean emission variabilities show statistically significant correlation with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Analysis of regional land emissions shows increases over America (Temperate North, Central, Tropical), Central Africa, and Asia (South, East and Southeast) between the 2000s and 2010s. Only Europe as a whole recorded a slight decrease in N₂O emissions due to chemical industry. Our inversions suggest revisions to seasonal emission variations for 3 of the 15 land regions (East Asia, Temperate North America and Central Africa), and the Southern Ocean region. The terrestrial ecosystem model (VISIT) is able to simulate annual total emissions in agreement with the observed N₂O growth rate since 1978, but the lag-time scales of N₂O emissions from nitrogen fertiliser application may need to be revised.

責任著者(Corresponding author)

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