抄録
This study developed a numerical formula based on statistical data on collapsed, burnt down buildings, and refugees taking shelter in schools during the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995. The data on building damage used in the study were 2004 municipalities, classified into 46 junior high school districts. The independent variables were collapsed buildings, burnt down buildings, and average population of each building. The refugee population was regarded as a dependent variable in this study. The formula effectiveness in the junior high school district was 63% and 98% in administrative wards. When predicting the refugee population in schools in Kobe City using the formula, the school refugee population was 80% of all refugees in Kobe City predicted by the Hyogo Prefectural Government. This outcome was the same percentage of the population in school refuges in the Great Hanshin Earthquake. Predicting the refugee population who took shelter in other places besides school refuges and controlling other effective intermediary variables to fit different local areas are issues worth pursuing in advanced research.
