Abstract
For this study, we conducted a questionnaire survey of disaster prevention systems, a
hearing survey, and extraction of disaster-exposed populations for five natural disasters using
GIS for all municipalities in Aomori Prefecture in Japan. Based on the obtained results, we
investigated the present disaster prevention system. This disaster prevention system, which is
expected to undergo future population decline, was verified quantitatively. Then we attempted
to confirm its status and future orientation. As a result, it was found that the future population of
municipalities in Aomori Prefecture will decrease sharply, but the disaster-exposed population
ratio (disaster risk) will be maintained. We also estimated the number of disaster prevention staff
in 2050 in municipalities in Aomori Prefecture. As a result, it became clear that it is necessary
to maintain the number of disaster prevention staff in 32 municipalities in order to maintain the
current disaster prevention system according to the disaster population ratio (disaster risk). In
the future, it is desirable to properly maintain the staff in charge of disaster prevention by
referring to the method examined in this study.
