説明変数を含んだマルコフチェインモデルによる都心再開発に伴う消費者回遊行動の変化予測

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CONSIDERING CONSUMERS' SHOP-AROUND BEHAVIORS IN AN AGGLOMERATED COMMERCIAL DISTRICT AS THE AGGLOMERATION EFFECT OF THE ACCUMULATED AND PROXIMATE LOCATIONS OF RETAIL FACILITIES IN THE DISTRICT, THIS PAPER PROPOSES AN EVALUATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING REDEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS OF CITY CENTER RETAIL ENVIRONMENT FROM SUCH A STANDARD AS WHAT AMOUNT OF CONSUMERS' SHOP-AROUND BEHAVIORS THESE PROGRAMS WOULD INDUCE. FOR THE PURPOSE, A STATIONARY MARKOV CHAIN MODEL WITH COVARIATES IS DEVELOPED TO EXPLAIN CONSUMER'S SHOP-AROUND BEHAVIOR WITHIN A SHOPPING DISTRICT. THE MODEL WAS ESTIMATED AND APPLIED TO THE ACTUAL CASE OF CITY CENTER OF FUKUOKA CITY. REDEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS THERE ARE TRIED TO BE EVALUATED BY ITS FORECASTS.