Abstract
Spreading severe infection disease will result in direct damages such as increase of disease and death, followed by indirect damages such as economic disruption. Once pandemic occurs, restricting urban economic activity can be an effective response to mitigate the damage in short run. Shut down of the infection route is a basic method to reduce the pandemic risk. On the other hand, level of urban economic activity shrinks during the restriction. Therefore political decision making should take into account both of the damage by pandemic and the damage by economic restriction. This paper proposes a model to control the level of restriction of urban economic activity at pandemic, which is based on dynamic control problem. The model derives the optimal time of implementing the restriction of urban economic activity. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis shows how the optimal policy and state transition of the infection are influenced by infection rate of the disease.
