Abstract
The System Dynamics (SD) model is effective for long term forecasting for complicate problems such as urban growth because of its flexibility. As many researchers pointed out, the SD model has the drawback of being too subjective. Although this basically uses the framework of SD, the principles of micro economics and an aggregated behavior model are introduced in some parts in order to make the urban growth models more reliable. The model is applied to forecast the population growth from the point of view based on the urban attraction in Sendai Metropolitan Area for coming 100 years.
