Abstract
This study provides a framework for quantitative analysis for cost-benefit of anti-seismic reinforcement, using geographical information systems (GIS) and the user equilibrium with variable demand (UE/VD) traffic assignment model. In our framework, seismic intensity maps are estimated by using GIS, corresponding to 23 earthquake scenarios that are supposed around the Kobe urban network. Probabilities such that a road bridge is damaged by an earthquake are evaluated from the seismic intensity map and the fragility curve for each road bridge. The social benefit loss for each earthquake scenario is evaluated by using UE/VD applied to a maximum-likelihood damage network conditional to the scenario.
