A study on ex-post evaluation of traffic forecast in road network planning

In the case of Rinkou-line in Otaru city

Abstract

In this paper a traffic forecast method used in 1965 was evaluated with ex-post data in order to improve the accuracy of forecast considering for uncertainties.
Comparisons of estimation methods between previous one and current one showed that in the estimated volume of total traffic little difference was observed, however, in estimation of trip generation and trip distribution of each zone there were large differences in particular zones. Additionally there were large estimation errors in assumed values of major input factors (e.g.population and vehicle registration).
In order to consider uncertainties in traffic forecast, itwould be an efficient method to monitor important factors, which are identified by sensitivity analysis.