The completion of the Single European Market and the opening of eastern Europe present new possibilities for the countries of the European Community. At the same time these countries are facing the same socioeconomic developments as other countries in the world such as the globalisation of the economy, the emerging information society, the deepening gap between North and South and the growing risks for the global climate. Before this background, transport and communications play an important role in shaping the future of Europe.
The paper reports on three scenario writing projects conducted under the auspices of the European Science Foundation and for the Commission of the European Communities. In the three projects, scenarios were developed for transport and communications in general, for the future of cities, and for the regional impacts of the Channel Tunnel and its related infrastructure.

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This paper examines a model due to Nguyen for estimating origin-destination (O-D) trip matrices from observed traffic flows on each network link. It is shown that the bilevel optimization methods for choosing an 0-D matrix can be transformed into single convex programs. Under the condition that the set of observed link flows is an equilibrium flow pattern, Nguyen's model is shown to be equivalent to an underspecified system of linear equations with non-negative variables. By exploiting the properties of the feasible region of the system, more simple method such as least squares technique can be used to obtain an 0-D matrix which, when user-optimally assigned to the network, reproduces the observed link flows exactly.

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Route Guidance System is useful for drivers and agencies which control traffic because the system can show the optimum route and even out car flows to avoid traffic jam by informing drivers traffic condition. The system can catch information from each car through roadside equipment, process the information and give it back to each car to control car flows. We made a simulation model of the system to bigin with. We must evaluate on the model the effects which car flows give to road network and decide a direction to make the Route Guidance System as a social basis.
This paper presents the effects and the direction. We showed the effects which route guided cars give to road network and investigated how to supply traffic information to cars. Besides, we suggested a method for renewal of the optimum route and showed the result.

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Car ownership has been considered as one of the key determinants of travel behavior and included virtually in every model of trip generation and mode choice. In the beginning of car ownership boom, the first private car was mainly a piece of household-level equipment; with the development of the second car, its use and purchase becomes more individual in a household. In order to analyse behavior of car ownership, this paper proposes the framework, in which the relationships among car ownership, car use and life cycle stage in household is dynamically analysed. The results analysing the longitudinal car ownership survey data in this decade in Kiryu, show that the framework is effective for analysis on the structure of multi-car ownership of household.

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In this paper, we analized the reliability and applicability of data obtained by The Nationwide Parson-trip Survey at 1987. As the results of this study, we obtained the following points; 1) the significance of trip generation rate, share of trip purpose, share of trip mode and trip length of each city. 2) It is difficult without some modification using Nationwide PT data, for renew traffic data conducted by past PT survey at each urban areas. 3) Mode choice model can be constructed by our Nationwide PT data for analyzing at each city, eventhough sample data are less number.

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In car-oriented societies such as recent Japan, drivers' cognitive maps and their behavior characteristics could become important tools to examine the quality of urban landscape and street environment, and so on.
In this paper, through psychological experiment, we tried to make clear the clues, by which drivers can find the way. In this experiment, the subjects were requested to drive the designated route, immediately after route guidance. Through this experiment, we expected to get information by which drivers tried to remember the route.
In conclusion, we could see the considerable difference between drivers and pedestrians to remember the route. Drivers proceed the way with the help of signals, signs and road markings, not with the help of landmarks in the urban areas.

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This study, first of all, proposes two definitions, one of which is “Possible Staying Time” and the other is “Piled-Up Travelling Time”. The former is based on duration of stay at destinations of return journey, while the latter is calculated as the sum of travelling time during one day; both are meant to be useful for model analysis as indices for spatial resistance. Furthermore, travelling time according to these definitions are actually given, and existence of advantages as well as disadvantages when applied to model analysis is examined.
As the result, many advantages of these proposed indices compared with commonly used but only vaguely defined ideas of travelling time have become clear, showing high aptitude for model analysis.

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Four Step Estimation Approach for travel demand forecasting is used most widely in Japan. However this approach is unable to apply hourly travel demand forecasting which is fit for analyzing traffic congestion or traffic demand in peak hours because the approach aims at estimating daily travel demand.
As we have proposed a time-of-day traffic assignment model in the previous paper, in this paper we propose two approaches for estimating hourly traffic generation/attraction and distribution before estimating modal split. One approach estimates straight by hour from traffic generation/attraction to distribution. Another approach estimates hourly traffic distribution after daily traffic distribution was estimated. Two approaches presented here are compared through application to the data in 1971 and 1981.

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Midnight activity in Tokyo metropolitan area has developed due to internationalization and change of life style and so on. It brings the increase of traffic volume and the gap between demand and supply growth rapidly.
This paper aims to develop new approaches to describe demand and supply aspect of midnighttransport. The approaches are 1) new estimation procedure for accurate midnight-transport demand, 2) supply analysis of taxi service and 3) demand analysis of express-bus at midnight.
Finally the fu rther transport policies to be examined are suggested.

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This paper presents the basic model that estimates route choice and departure time distributions at the commuter rush hour. The choice of route and departure time is based on the trade-off between travel time and schedule delay. The utility function consists of the estimated travel time, schedule delay, lateness in arrival at work. The estimated travel time includes the safety marginw ith uncertain travel performancef rom day to day. This model applies to the urban road networks with multiple trip origins and distinations by means of the new dynamic traffic assignment. The model is used to perform simulation experimentsa, nd to analyze the impacts of values of the disutility parameters.

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This paper presents an estimation method of the number of visitors based on the destination-based trio surveys. The estimation method consists of the interrelated two steps: 1) estimating the most probable states of the number of visitors by routes based on traffic count data; 2) estimating the route choice models with choice-based surveys on visitors' behavior. We propose an analytical framework which can integrate the sub-models into a Stackelberg-type of programming model. The proposed methods can be considered as a logical extension of Cosslett's method for estimating logit models with general choice-based samples. The applicability of the methodology is verified by a case study conducted for the San'in Region. Simulation experiments are made to assess the impacts of survey errors on the reproductivity of the models.

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The purpose of this paper is to analyze basic characteristics of travel demand and traffic flow in recreational arterials in Fuji Five Lakes area to make use of them for the improvement of arterial road network. This analysis focuses on temporal and spatial distributions of hourly traffic volume; the K-factor and the D-value will be empirically examined comparing them with the ones of workday traffic in an urban area. The paper also presents a simulation model of travel time on the route located near Yamanaka-Lake. This model can allow us to quantitatively describe the effects of behaviors of parking on the traffic condition. These results have indicated that some of the characteristics obtained can offer us a better understanding for an arterial improvement planning.

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The research has three objectives: i) to develop a methodology for identifying latent variables that are used as explanatory variables in choice models; ii) to develop a methodology for incorporating latent choice sets in discrete choice models; and iii) to apply the proposed methods to destination choice analysis of vacation trips. Linear structural equation models are employed to identify latent variables. Latent choice sets are described by random constraint models. A practical estimation method for probabilistic choice set models with large number of alternatives is also proposed. A case study of the destination choice analysis of vacation trips shows effectiveness of the proposed methods.

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In this paper a traffic forecast method used in 1965 was evaluated with ex-post data in order to improve the accuracy of forecast considering for uncertainties.
Comparisons of estimation methods between previous one and current one showed that in the estimated volume of total traffic little difference was observed, however, in estimation of trip generation and trip distribution of each zone there were large differences in particular zones. Additionally there were large estimation errors in assumed values of major input factors (e.g.population and vehicle registration).
In order to consider uncertainties in traffic forecast, itwould be an efficient method to monitor important factors, which are identified by sensitivity analysis.

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Based on detailed research, this study suggests ways in which streets may provide parking spaces in the central areas of cities, where transit and parking functions are required.
Those who make trips involving loading operations are affected significantly by the availability of parking or loading zones and are forced to search for appropriate open areas when there is no open space at any desirable location. In order to eliminate the wasteful traffic thus generated, a plan is proposed to reserve spaces on roads for loading operations. And trial calculation of the likely required number of such spaces is presented.

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Parking problem in urban areas is one of the most important problems now a days, and expected to be approached by some new effective ideas. In this paper, profitability of the off-street parking facilities was considered based on a management model developed for various types with many influencing factors. In addition, effects of some types of subsidiary means were tested.
In summary, the following results were obtained, 1) mechanical type and building type parking will be profitable under some conditions, 2) underground type will be profitable if a subsidiary at a level of 30% of cost or more is provided, and 3) ground type and two levels type will have no profitable condition and need to be trans-ferred to mechanical or building type to raise the efficiency.

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Mowadays the improvemont of train goheduting to reliev congestion comes to be more important. Recause there are a huge number of feasible alternatives, the development of a method to narrow down the pattern of train scheduling is required. At First, typical sections of seventeen lines in reality are drawn and their characteristics are analyzed. Then four nonlinear programming problems are solved. The results are referenced, demand pattern models and train scheduling pattern models are set up. User's disutility on each case is evaluated by user's equilibrum assignemnt on time-space network. Then relationship between demand pattern and adequate train scheduling pattern is made to be clear.

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Single lane approaches at signalized intersections have various factors which affect the capacity. These typical factors are right turns, left turns, heavy vehicles and approach widths.These factors interact each other and reduce the capacity at single lane approaches. Authors develop the computer simulation model for analyzing the effect of these factors on the capacity of single lane approaches. The computed values of the capacity based on the simulation model are compared with the observed values. The results show the validity of the simulation model. This paper shows that the capacity for the single lane approaches is much influenced by the approach widths, opposed right turn vehicles, flow of opposing vehicles, and cycle lengths.

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This paper aims to make clear the macroscopic mechanism of traffic accident occurrence in urban road network by analysing the relation between the accident density by link, and its road function and roadside land use.
As a result, it is found that the traffic accident density is significantly relevant to the classification of road function and the roadside land use pattern, and that it is relatively high on links with complex road function or on links with rapid change of roadside land use. Finally, the average accident density by the correspodence between road function and roadside land use pattern is analysed, and the combinations of them, which have problems in terms of traffic safety, are identified

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This paper provides a new model for reservoir operation optimization which expliciltly takes into account both the amount of the shortage of water and the drought duration. The model is formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming model which minimizes the expected loss per period. By use of this model, the optimal release rule is determined as a function of the maximum available amounts of water (i. e., water storage and inflow) and the drought duration. The expected loss is calculated based on the single stage loss function which is a function of both the reservoir release and the drought duration. It is shown that reliability performance indices, such as ‘drought frequency’ and ‘expected drought duration’, are estimated as the expected loss per period for a special case of this extended single stage loss function. The paper also proposes models for evaluating reliability performances based on the above operation design model.

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It is important for urban transportation planning to predict demand of international freight container. This paper explores to estimate models which evaluate the amount of it. In the modeling, however it is difficult to find the real form of model function and know the economic structure among industries which produce not only the freight (physical output) but also the price of freight (quality). It is useful for these kind of problems to apply the translog function and the hedonic function. The translog function has been widely used in cost and production studies since its first systematic interpretation by Christensen et al.(1973). It represents a second-order Taylor series approximation to an unknown underlying function. The hedonic function is convenient to treat effective output as a function of a generic measure of physical output and its qualities. The concept was pioneered by Friedlaender et al.(1978). This paper also present a possible use of these methodology.

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In the past, the decision of earthwork planning has been systematized by application of classical transportation problem. In the practical earthwork, however, cutting volume, banking one and hauling distance cannot be often estimated as definite values in advance. Because this kind of problem cannot be formulated as classical transportation problem, earthwork planning with uncertainty is formulated by applying fuzzy theory to transportation problem in this paper. By introducing parametric programing technique to fuzzy transportation problem, it can be converted into parametric transportation problem with parameter in constraints on cutting volume and banking one. Finally, fuzzy transportation problem has been systematized for operating by micro-computer.

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The concrete placement must be executed with consideration for weather conditions to prevent defects such as thermal cracking and frost damage of the placed concrete. Futhermore the dam site is usually located where is difficult to procure material and for that reason the concrete placement is strongly infuluenced by shortage of material. So as to satisfy these requirements we developed a scheduling system, linking with quality control and material control, and then the following plans can be made automatically and quickly by utilizing this system.
(1) the quality assurance schedule, (2) the detailed work schedule adjusted to the project control schedule, (3) the material procurement plan based on schedule

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As one of powerful tools for the design in coastal space, where waves and their sounds have significant roles as factors constituting amenity of the space, a dynamic simulator of landscape and auditory environments has been developed, being based on Computer-Graphics techniques and incorporating a sound processing system, To realize the simulator system on a work-station (20MIPS, 32Mb), several inventions to reduce computational time and storage domain are introduced in the software system both in themethod of the CG expression and of the calculation of waves. The validity and availability of the present system have been confirmed through an application to a specific plan of construction of artificial beaches.

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In this paper we tried to evaluate shadow spaces in traditional or historic districts and in contemporary urban districts to give new design vocabularies to urban design works. These subjects are studied by the psycological experiment using rating scales. For example, shadow spaces in the traditional spaces could be classified into four types, that is, mild, static, mild-static, and dynamic types. By comparing shadow spaces between Japan and Europe, we could appreciate differences of the climate and materials composing cityscape.

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The author of this thesis has clasified the information system in anti-disaster measures into three sub systems as follows:
1) Macro system shall pertain public scale operations in which the things will be governed by the administrative organizations, as seen in the case of district scale flood warning. 2) Meso system shall be the co-operative activities, as seen in the case of water-level observetion at a flood time by local people living in the neighbourhood at the river, and 3) Micro system is to be characteriset by being carried out at an individual level, as seen in the case of personal inspection on roof-water leaking at the time of storm.
These sub-systems are to be so organized that the most effective performance shall be obtained.

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High-technology based industries, such as electronics and bio-technology industries have been spreading over whole in Japan. They face to the conflict problems with traditional industries in term of competitive employment. This paper discusses the industry which doesn't compete with a traditional industry but supplement each other through the network of transaction of goods. These kind of industries might be more suitable to be located in a region. For the identification of such a industry, the weak type of Industrial Complex Analysis is employed together with the structuring technique of industrial groups using the elements of Input-Output Tables. It was found that the analytical method proposed in the paper is effective to find an appropriate industry to be introduced in a region. The result is quite reasonable in a practical point of view and is significantly different from that of proposed by traditional methods.

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The impacts of transport improvement on agglomeration or dispersion of activity locations are now becoming more important than before. This paper aims at a model analysis on household location changes motivated by increasing opportunities for life activities, which are focused among various impacts of transport improvement.
The model shows location equilibrium of households between two regions connected by a single passenger transport mode, and makes it possible to analyze location changes caused by the reduction of inter-regional transport cost. The typical patterns of location changes were described by comparative statics or numerical simulations, and then, conditions for agglomeration or dispersion were clarified.

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This paper aims at the evaluation method for the alternative of District Planning by AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process). In AHP, the evaluation structure is very clear and it's suitable for the District Planning. However, the evaluation criteria must be independent each other. And the weight of the alternative which is final output by AHP is the average evaluation. So the evaluation is apt to be one side.
In this paper, the new evaluation index (U, N, L index) which is based on fuzzy measure theory is adopted. And we examine its validity for the independent constraint and the versatile evaluation.

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The paper presents simple econometric models which could estimate effects caused by transportation investment and district redevelopment in order to cope with recent urban problems.
LISREL modeling applied in marketing study and tobit modeling were employed here. The former has two advantages comparing with conventional econometric models. The first is its structural simplicity. The second is availability of introducing latent variables composed of some indicators observed by actual data. This is utilized for defining a new concept which structured the evaluation function. After the estimation of models, the effects of external changes on transportation could be evaluated using the hedonic models.

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The usual definition of benefit such as the Equivalent Variation (EV) or the Compensating Variation (CV) cannot be applied to the project evaluation within the context of the random utility theory, because the utility level of every household which has the random error is not always the same even at the market equilibrium point. In this paper, therefore, we discuss how to define the benefit within the context of the random utility theory so as to be consistent with the location analysis. Four ways to define the benefit are proposed, and discussed on their characteristics. Finally, we show that the most suitable definition is one by applying the concept of EV to the expected value of maximum utility, that is, the satisfaction function.

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The form of the S. Rosen's hedonic land-price function is specified by an empirical method based on both the characteristics of market price data and the Box-Cox transformation, not by a theoretical method of market equilibrium. It is expected that it has higher reality and statistical confidence than the models by linear multiple regression or quantification theory of the first type.
In this paper, we propose a model of the nonlinear land-price function that is specified by a hedonic land-price function. We apply this model to an analysis of the urban land-price structure. This model gives more accurate an analysis of the urban land-price structure, not only in factor analysis, but also in the analysis of the marginal price and elasticity.

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