TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS FROM PRE-INDUSTRIAL TO DIFFERENT GLOBAL WARMING LEVELS BASED ON D4PDF DATASET

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 Tropical cyclones (TCs) are major contributors to disaster-related losses and fatalities worldwide. Current research suggests that TC intensity will increase under global warming and overall frequency may decline, substantial uncertainty remains due to model limitations and regional variability.

 This study quantifies the impacts of different warming levels on TC activity using the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF), a large-ensemble, high-resolution climate simulation. The dataset covers pre-industrial, historical, and +2K and +4K warming conditions. Results show basin-specific frequency changes, with the Northwest Pacific (NWP) experiencing declines of 10.6% (historical) and 38.4% (+4K). In contrast, maximum intensity consistently increases across all scenarios, with intense TCs (<920 hPa) approximately doubling in the NWP and North Atlantic (NA) under +2K and further rising under +4K. Additionally, TC genesis and intensification shift poleward, particularly in the NWP, and trajectories migrate toward mid- and high-latitude regions, heightening risks in these areas.