PROJECTION OF FREAK WAVES ALONG GLOBAL COAST UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON d4PDF DATASET

抄録

 This study preliminarily develops a freak wave estimation model, based on a modified nonlinear Schrödinger equation, with the global wave model WAVEWATCH III (WW3) to predict freak wave occurrence probability under long-term climate conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to fit the occurrence probability of freak waves from topography changes, directional dispersion, and spectral bandwidth in wave train evolution. WW3 provides spectral information as input forcing. Based on a high-resolution unstructured mesh grid, a 60-year global simulation under d4PDF database reveals consistent spatial patterns and seasonal trends of significant wave height and extreme events. The proposed framework provides a more physically-based estimate of freak wave risk and offers a reference dataset for future study of long-term costal hazard assessments.