MEASURING AND EVALUATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF TOD POLICY USING CGE MODEL

抄録

 Many metropolitan areas have implemented Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) to optimize urban structure and promote sustainable urban development. Numerous evaluation methods have also been proposed to assess the effectiveness of TOD policies. However, most studies focus on transportation and land use, failing to capture the broader economic impacts. To quantitatively evaluate the wider economic benefits of TOD policies, this study employs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, using the Kofu Metropolitan Area as a case study to simulate the economic impacts of rail transit and TOD policy on the regional economy. The results indicate that the operation of urban rail transit generates an annual economic benefit of 2.52 billion JPY per year, accounting for 0.121% of the gross regional product (GRP) of the base year. Additionally, implementing TOD policies in the four selected regions yields additional benefits of 1.37 billion JPY per year, corresponding to 0.066% of GRP. Although TOD policies will lead to a loss of benefits in non-TOD areas, under the scenario where rail transit and TOD policies are implemented simultaneously, more than 90% of case areas are expected to experience positive economic gains.