Abstract
Malthus' theory of oscillation has been little discussed in the English Malthus literature and by The Society for the History of Economic Thought in Japan. However, a dominant view of of the The Population Association of Japan is that it is only a mechanical combination of the principle of increase and the regulating principle. But I deny this view, for it is not on an immanent evaluation. As such, this paper primarily concerned to clarify the role and importance of the theory. In chapter 1, the theory of oscillation rises a central problem of the 1st Essay. Chapter 2 contains a formula of oscillation (26th paragraph) with many points that are explicated in later chapters. So, it can be seen as condensation of Malthus' thought in 1798. This formula provides a logical solution to the problem of showing how misery and vice in modern society are brought about by the superior power of population, therefore, is a logic to introduce three propositions. So, it provides continuity with the historical materiales of the following chapters. The theory of oscillation figures prominently in chapters 3, 5, 7, 8, and 16. The oscillation formula indicates that to analyse oscillation in modern society needs economics, particularly a short-run analysis of supply and demand. As developed in chapter 16, it serves as a base of a critiqe of A. Smith, and is also used as an instrument to analyse the history of England since the Revolution. It also serves as a criterion for Malthus' policy criticism. Chapter 16 partially concerns with the standard of living which is the problem contained in the theory of oscillation itself, and indicates that Malthus probably accepts the rise of it in the 1st Essay. In conclusion, Malthus' theory of oscillation is one of the main pillars of his theoretical edifice in the 1st Essay.
