新型コロナウイルス (COVID-19)における感染予防策の推定

抄録

This paper implements the infection process of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases(COVID-19) in an agent-based model and compares the effectiveness of multiple infection preven-tion measures. In the model, 1,120 virtual residents agents live in two towns where they commuteto office or school and visiting stores. The model simulates an infection process in which they wereexposed to the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus. The results of the experiments showedthat individual infection prevention measures (commuting, teleworking, class closing, contact ratereduction, staying at home after fever) alone or partially combined them do not produce signifi-cant effects. On the other hand, if comprehensive measures were taken, it was confirmed that thenumber of deaths, the infection rate, and the number of severe hospitalised patients per day weredecreased significantly at the median and maximum respectively.