Prediction of innovation diffusion effect by introducing solar and wind hybrid power generation system

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict the innovation diffusion effect of the introduction of solar and wind hybrid power generation system and to quantify the factors. Therefore, we built a model using Vensim with the system dynamics method, performed simulation experiments for each scenario. The results show that, first, the factors influencing innovation diffusion are higher in order of policy effect, cost of installation and selling price of electricity, and the expansionary effect of each factor on innovation diffusion was found to be larger than the contractionary effect. Second, based on the selling price of electricity that has been decreasing year by year, the penetration will increase due to reduced installation costs and improved policy effects. It was suggested that the pace of decline in the selling price of electricity exceeds the pace of decline in the introduction cost will have a contractionary effect on diffusion. Third, if the selling price of electricity is more than 25 yen, the introduction cost is reduced by more than 50 percent, and the amount of support is more than 17.661 billion yen, the diffusion of innovation could progress rapidly.