非集計行動分析に基づく都市圏住宅需要モデル
1986 年 1986 巻 365 号 p. 79-88
詳細
1986 年 1986 巻 365 号 p. 79-88
A model to forecast total demand for housing by its type is built for a metropolitan area. The model is built based on disaggregate behavioral analyses using nested logit models. The nested logit models describe locational behaviors of households, that is, choice between remaining at the present house and moving to a new house, and choice of housing type. They have enough variables to explain these locational behaviors, and the parameters are estimated with good fitness. This study also discusses the way to estimate the numbers of different types of households, which is indispensable in forecasting total demand of housing in the area. It is proved that the forecasting model based on the above mentioned approach can estimate housing demand for the period from 1975 to 1980 in Tokyo metropolitan area with good fitness.
