被災事例に基づく河川堤防の安定性評価

抄録

In order to evaluate the stability of river levee, the application of a logit model was attempted. On the basis of actual levee breaches, the probability of collapse for river levee was evaluated with the damage potential function consisting of characteristic factors of river levees. Eleven factors were selected of many possible factors of levee, and four logit models were formulated with them. As a result, the significant characteristic factors which affected the stability evaluation were specified. And it was found that probability of collapse “P” could accurately be represented as index for the stability of river levee. This paper also shows that the predictability of these models are sufficiently effective to evaluate river levee stability in the sense of its simplicity.