Climate Projections of Around Japan - Comparison between CMIP3 and CMIP5 model -

Abstract

 Climate change scenarios based on RCP emission scenarios were developed to contribute to the IPCC 5th assessment report. We analyzed annual change of surface air temperature, precipitation and solar insolation around Japan using 44 climate change scenarios based on 3 RCP scenarios and 12 GCM models. The results indicate that annual mean change of air temperature from the years 1980-1999 to 2080-2099 under RCP8.5 scenario was predicted to increase by 4.9°C, annual mean change of daily precipitation under RCP4.5 scenario was predicted to increase by 9.2%, annual mean change of solar insolation under RCP8.5 scenario was predicted to decrease by 8.7W/m². In the case of air temperature change, there were not big differences between similar RCP and SRES scenario. In the case of precipitation change, there was low correlation between the similar emission scenarios, but it was predicted that precipitation will increase generally in the future. In the case of solar insolation change, it was predicted that solar insolation will increase under RCP scenarios, but it will decrease under SRES scenarios. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention when using the solar insolation datasets.