A Study on GHG Emissions and Mitigation potentials in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use sectors in Indonesia

Abstract

 In Indonesia, in 2000 around 67% of domestic GHG emissions derives from Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). It is important to evaluate quantitatively mitigation potentials and to specify countermeasures with large mitigation potentials. Using the AFOLU Bottom-up Model, we estimated GHG emissions and mitigation in AFOLU sectors based on a future scenario, harvested area of crops, number of livestock and land use change. Based on the analysis, in 2030 we found that GHG emissions in AFOLU sectors are expected to increase by 2.5 times at the 2000 level in the BaU case. 75% of emission in 2030 derives from peat land drainage. Under 10USD/tCO₂eq of allowable abatement costs, 33MtCO₂eq/year of GHG emissions can be reduced in agriculture, which corresponds approximately to 46% of agricultural emissions in 2000. Midseason drainage in rice paddies, fall incorporation of rice straw and high efficiency fertilizer application are expected to reduce around 11MtCO₂eq/year. For the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sectors, enhanced natural regeneration, reforestation and avoid deforestation will be the most cost-effective countermeasures considering cumulative mitigation potentials up to 2050.