Impact assessment of climate change on wheat and maize production on consideration of GCM uncertainty

Abstract

 This paper uses the iGAEZ (improved Global Agro-Ecological Zones) model for simulating wheat and maize yields on a global scale. We estimated the future agricultural production under climate change, based on iGAEZ model and climate projection for 2040-2059, 2080-2099 from general circulation models (A1B: 24, A2:19, B1:22 models) using the CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Results indicate wheat production in whole world have decreased in the near future and the future under the all scenarios. In addition, East Asia will likely get positive impacts on wheat production in the future. Moreover, it is found that reduction in maize productions on North and South America remains within small range. Under the SRES B1 scenario, developed and developing regions exhibit less contrast in crop yield changes, with the B1 future crop yield changes being slightly more favorable than those of the A1B, A2. B1 scenario is being relatively east to plan agricultural adaptation for long-term food supply and demand.