Long-term Area Change of Japanese Two Tidal Flats and Its Future Projection Due to Sea Level Rise

Abstract

 This study investigates century-scale area change of Japanese two tidal flats facing Ariake Sea and Tokyo Bay and their future projections in order to estimate the effect of sea level rise due to climate change on the tidal flats. The long term area change shows that the notable erosion of tidal flats. The future projections using the recent sea bed topography and estimation result of sea level rise show that there are much difference between the future projections with and without consideration of vertical accretion rate. Possibility of serious damage of tidal flats was indicated, though more precise estimation considering other effects such as flood characteristic change due to the climate change is needed in future.