Estimated Relationship between Slope Failure and Population due to Global Warming

Abstract

 The purpose of this study is to estimate the impact of human risk due to the slope failure with global warming. Extreme rainfall is obtained with Multi SRES and climate scenarios(GCM Model : MIROC3.2 Medres, MRI-CGCM2.3.2, GFDL CM2.1, CSIRO MK3.0, SRES : A1B, A2, B1) and calculated temporalspatial slope failure probability distribution (present year period, 2020 year period, 2050 year period, and 2090 year period). Impact response population developed to the slope failure probability in Japan. The results obtained are as follows; 1) High risk population is 1% of the total Japanese population (about 120million) in present period. 2) An increase in the high risk population of 10% estimated in the future at compared with present period. 3) The high risk population increasing tendency is estimated on Japan sea side in the future.