A FORECASTING METHOD FOR FUTURE OCCUPIED DWELLINGS CONSIDERING THE CHANGE IN HOUSEHOLD TYPE

Abstract

 This paper proposes a forecasting method for future occupied dwellings by considering the change in household type, which is an important phenomenon in Japan due to population aging. It is demonstrated that the actual number of household that dwelled in detached houses during 1990-2010 can be explained by the change in household type. The actual number of households that occupied tenement-houses and apartments can be reproduced by considering the change in relation between type of buildings and households. This method is adapted to forecast future occupied dwellings in Japan, revealing that the number of detached houses will reach 28.41 million in 2015. It also demonstrates that the average size of floor space will be reduced because of a substantial increase in the number of apartments due to the increase of single-person households among the elderly, especially in urban area.