Abstract
The authors' numerical urban weather forecasting model coupled with a building energy model named WRF-CM-BEM was validated toward its application to simultaneous prediction of urban weather and electricity supply-demand including photovoltaic power generation. In addition to the distribution of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) with a high spatial resolution, multi-site surface air temperatures and electricity demands within the coverage areas of individual electric power substations were observed in Osaka city for the validation in FY 2013, and those reproducibilities by the model were checked in the summer season. The validation indicated the good performance of WRF-CM-BEM in terms of reproducibilities of the electricity demand in a commercial area and surface air temperatures over Osaka city but with up to 40% overestimation of electricity demand in a residential district. The observed GHI was well reproduced by WRF-CM-BEM only with the error of 7% under clear sky conditions, but with remarkable overestimations under cloudy sky on the other hand, though the statistical characteristics of the observed spatial inhomogeneity of GHI were well simulated qualitatively. Through the validation, the strategy was clarified for further improvement of WRF-CM-BEM.
