A PAVEMENT DETERIORATON FORCASTING MODEL WITH REFERENCE TO SAMPLE DROPPING

Abstract

In this paper, a pavement deterioration model is presented to forecast the progression of pavement deterioration based upon the inspection/rehabilitation data. The pavement performances are described by the multiple rating indices, and the Markov transition probabilities are modeled by multi-staged exponential hazard model. In the processes, a part of samples are systematically dropped by preventive rehabilitation activities. In this paper, a choice-based sampling technique is applied to cope with estimation biases caused by sample dropping. The case study is carried out based upon the rutting progression data observed on the expressways to illustrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.