抄録
This study estimated the climate change impacts on future water resources availability in the Tagliamento River in Italy. The results from ten GCM scenarios were linked with the mesoscale climate using the stochastic weather generator technique. The tank model, which produced 84‰ agreement for observed and simulated water discharges in present climate, was used to simulate river discharges in three time periods in future. According to our results, 2.3° and 2.7°C warming in annual average minimum and maximum temperatures can be expected in 2080–2099 compared to observations in 1991–2010 period. Markedly, the rate of frost day decrease in lower elevation areas is 262‰ higher than that in the higher elevation areas. The change in precipitation pattern is minor in near future but likely to be significant in further climates. Consequently, the occurrence of low flow events will be more than two folds and decrease in monthly river discharge will be as high as 33‰ in 2080–2099 compared to 1991–2010 period.
