抄録
In 2010, severe floods in Pakistan brought many casualties and economic losses. The heavy rainfall in this year was the greatest since 1994. This study presents a challenge to attribute the 2010 Pakistan heavy rainfall to global warming. We analyzed large ensemble simulations of a general circulation model (GCM) both under realistic climatic conditions and under ideal climatic conditions assuming global warming is not occurring. Due to inherent model biases in rainfall representation in the GCM, we defined a proxy indicator which could illustrate the specific atmospheric pressure pattern causing heavy rainfall in Pakistan. The probability density function (PDF) of the indicator showed that the pressure pattern associated with the heavy rainfall seems to be slightly reduced on average due to anthropogenic climate change, but there was minimal change for the extreme cases.
