抄録
The physical based Water and Energy Budget - Distributed Hydrological Model with improved snow physics (WEB-DHM-S) was constructed to simulate the long-term hydrological processes in the Shubuto River Basin, Hokkaido, Japan. Long-term (1948-2006) simulation using high resolution JP-10 reanalysis data set showed slight to moderate decreasing trend in snow cover days and decline in snow water equivalent (SWE) in the basin. The model was forced with bias corrected Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) outputs to explore the climate change impact on the basin hydrology. The AOGCMs predicted snowmelt induced peak flow to be occurred on average two weeks earlier with less snowmelt in the future. The paper delivered usable information of snow extent, snow depth and SWE and enhanced understanding of long term hydrological changes and uncertainties associated with the simulated climate signals. The present study provided direction for future research to reach more reliable conclusion.
