抄録
Okayama city is susceptible to tsunami disaster when Nankai Trough earthquake occurs because its coastal area is mainly occupied by a vast below-sea-level area. It is indispensable to predict tsunami behavior hitting the city previously for taking appropriate countermeasure under the earthquake. Although real-time tsunami forecast method by inverse analysis has been developed, it is difficult to predict tsunami waveform in a shallow inland sea where Okayama city faces. This research constructs a model for forecasting waveform of tsunami reaching Okayama city's coast before its arrival from tsunami waveform observed at Naruto or Akashi Channel which is located in east of the Seto Inland Sea. As the results of this research, relatively large tsunami at Yamada port is reproduced by this model as being numerically simulated. And this research shows the prediction model is usable for estimating highest tsunami height at Yamada port even if a tide is taken into consideration.
