擬似温暖化と力学的ダウンスケーリングによる北陸地方における降水特性の将来変化

抄録

 Future variations of precipitation around the Hokuriku region are investigated with dynamic downscaling results. Reanalysis data is used as initial and boundary conditions for the reproductive downscaling of the present climate. For future climate, five climate projection are used and the pseudo global warming technique is applied. Seasonal progression of precipitation in the reproductive downscaling result agrees well with AMeDAS observation. In present climate, peak of monthly precipitation is July in Hokuriku region. However, the peak shifts to June in future climate. Increasing frequency of strong precipitation (larger than 30 mm/day) in June and decreasing precipitation in July cause the shift of the precipitation. In other regions, such variation is not recognized. In addition, the maximum duration of precipitation becomes longer and total precipitation increases in future climate.