EVALUATION OF FUTURE CHANGE ON SEDIMENT- AND WATER-RELATED DISASTERS EMPLOYING SIMHIS AND NHRCM05 OUTPUTS

Abstract

 In order to evaluate the future change of sediment- and water-related disasters under climate change, this study compared the simulation results of the water and sediment runoff model considering sediment yield by landslides. The output of NHRCM05, a regional climate model, was employed as rainfall inputs. As a result of applying to the Akatani river basin, which was damaged in the heavy rainfall disaster in northern Kyushu, 2017, both the maximum water discharge and total sediment yield volume in the target basin were increased in the future rainfall data. Additionally, the variation of the relationship among total sediment runoff volume and maximum water discharge was also increased. These results implied that the possibility that disasters with a different trend will appear in the future.