ESTIMATION OF THE FUTURE RESIDENCE DISTRIBUTION FOR OBIHIRO URBAN AREA

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimate the future spatial distribution of the population and the number of people in house from 2010 to 2030 for Obihiro urban area that is a local city of Hokkaido by the generation constitution of the residents in each the zone and the distribution of building age. In this study, therefore, the population data which is published by Obihiro city government and the statistic data from the basic survey of urban planning were integrated. And the distribution of future population was estimated by the cohort analysis. In addition, the relations of spatial distribution of population and the building age in the future was analyzed. Finally, by the result of the extracted districts from the future population decline and aging buildings distribution, the direction of the renovation of Obihiro urban area was considered.