EVALUATION OF THE TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION USING A TRANSIT ASSIGNMENT MODEL CONSIDERING THE VEHICLE CAPACITY AND THE CORRELATION OF VEHICLES' ARRIVAL

Abstract

This paper proposes an evaluation method of the travel time reliability of public transportation network. The method uses a transit assignment model incorporating the capacity constraints and the correlation of the vehicles, where passengers are firstly assigned to a network with the norm of expected waiting time and then travel time reliability is evaluated using the expected waiting time from the output of the model. Since the travel times between stops are assumed to be constant, the sources of fluctuations of the travel time in this study are the waiting times at the stop which depend on the congestion and the correlation among vehicles. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a toy network to demonstrate how the overcapacity and the correlation of vehicles affect travel time reliability.