Abstract
In this study, a strategic cross-assessment method is developed for transport policy formulation at local regions which is facing depopulation and aged society. The cross assessment method aims to support the discussion for direction of integrated policy by comprehensive impact analysis. This method is applied to the public transport policy in Shikoku region for the time range by 2035, and the outcomes are analyzed for the land-use and public transport policies and the difference of the impact among municipalities are assessed.
From the analysis, it is found that 1) public financial support will have to be doubled to maintain the current service level of public transport in future, 2) improvement of fiscal balance of transport operator and CO2 emission reduction can be achieved together, but higher user's benefit and better fiscal standing of transport operation have trade-off relationship, and 3) urban compaction and high speed rail will be effective on higher benefit and improvement of fiscal balance of public transport, and there is synergistic effect between them.
