AN EVACUATION MODEL INCORPORATING COGNITIVE DISSONANCE: INTRODUCTION OF PSYCHOLOGICAL ELEMENTS TO EVACUATION SIMULATION

Abstract

 When considering tsunami evacuation problems, the existence of some psychological factors (e.g. cognitive dissonance and attitudes waiting for warning) of residents were pointed out as causes of the delays of residents' starting evacuation activities. In order to understand the decision making process for their starting evacuation activities, this research aims to model a decision making incorporating individual rationality and cognitive dissonance in a two-period model. As a result, the paper shows that the present model successfully simulates the evacuee's decision delay for their evacuation activities.