Abstract
Japan faces the risk of huge earthquakes and improving national resilience by infrastructure reinforcement to deal with the risk is a pressing issue. In order to evaluate the appropriateness and urgency of each project for resilience, quantitative prediction of damage to the infrastructures and the effects of reinforcement is indispensable, but there has not been sufficient knowledge about it. In this study, based on the data from the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, we developed a model to predict shut-down of road links caused by huge earthquakes. The result suggests that strengthening earthquake resistance such as seismic retrofitting of bridges and undergrounding electric infrastructures contributes to mitigation of damage. However, the accuracy of estimation is limited due to lack of data such as statistics of the level of earthquake resistance of infrastructures.
