STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION WITH WORK START TIME CHOICE MODEL FOR EVALUATION OF TDM POLICY

Abstract

To solve the heavy congestion and delay problem of the morning rush hour in the Tokyo metropolitan area, we develop a work start time model. In the model, seven time zones separated by city, town and village units every 30 minutes are selected, and a time accumulation variable expressing the spatial and economic connection between the regions is introduced in the model formula. Parameter estimation was carried out by structure estimation using the pseudo maximum likelihood method since the selection probability of other regions is included in the starting time selection probability of its own area. As a result, it is obvious that the parameter indicating time accumulation grows larger in the suburbs than the central part, the starting time of other areas is not influenced in determining the start time of the downtown area, and the start time of the city in the suburbs is affected became.