PREDICTION CONCEPT FOR STRUCTURAL CONDITION USING INSPECTION RESULT CONSIDERING MEASUREMENT ERROR AND TIME ERROR

Abstract

 Bridge management system (BMS) that serve an effective maintenance strategy became a popular issue especially in such severe financial circumstance. However, the deterioration prediction model that is a core component of BMS gives a big prediction gap from actual bridge condition. One of the reasons is from scattering of deterioration degree of the actual bridge, which is not considered in most of the prediction models. This paper proposes a methodology to consider the scattering of deterioration to mockup the actual bridge condition, and to correct prediction error by bridge inspection results (obtained from Kochi prefecture). The scattering range is controlled by deterioration speed that ranges from zero to a sufficient deterioration speed that able to represent the whole scattering. However, inspection result have the measurement error and the time error of when to have changed to the deterioration state. so to correct prediction have to take into consideration an error of measurement and a time error. In this research, deterioration prediction not corrected by inspection result, deterioration prediction corrected only by first inspection result, deterioration prediction corrected by first and second inspection results, deterioration prediction corrected by first to third inspection results, and third inspection by comparing the results. Thereby the effect of the prediction accuracy due to the correction is verified.