2023 Volume 78 Issue 5 Pages I_911-I_918
This study develops a queueing model based on a continuum traffic flow model that endogenously describes the capacity drop (CD) phenomenon at freeway sag and tunnel bottlenecks and analyzes the characteristics of the traffic breakdown probability. The model describes the traffic breakdown probability in two steps, distinguishing between fluctuations in arrival demand and those in traffic capacity, in addition to taking into account the CD phenomenon. Monte Carlo simulations are performed for each step, and the following results are obtained: (i) the CD phenomenon shifts the traffic breakdown probability distribution to a lower demand range; (ii) the traffic capacity fluctuations mainly determine the shape of the breakdown probability distribution.
