This paper reviews recent methodological developments in discrete choice analysis and discusses related issues for their application to transport modeling and infrastructure planning. We mainly focus on two research directions: (1) user heterogeneity and (2) concepts of perturbed utility. For heterogeneity, we summarize some mixture models derived from mixed multinomial logit models and semi-nonparametric structures, especially for empirical applications of estimating the distributions of users’ marginal valuation of attributes. Regarding perturbed utility, generalized entropy, convex conjugate, and demand inversion would be the key concepts for comprehensively understanding the various aspects of discrete choices, including bounded rationality. Finally, we argue possible future research directions of choice modeling.

The designation of induction areas in a location normalization plan is left to the discretion of each city. Many cities include estimates of disaster risk for their induction areas. Because flood damage has occurred in induction areas, this study was conducted to reduce disaster risk by designating residential induction areas. This study analyzed the population density in residential induction areas and the difference in disaster risk ratios between inhabitable area and residential induction area in cities. Additionally, this study analyzed changes in population and land prices inside and outside of induction areas because of flood damage. Results showed that the ratio of disaster risk in cities with flood depths of 3.0 m or greater is higher because of their designation of residential induction areas. Furthermore, results confirmed that the population decreased and that land prices declined in residential induction areas where flood damage had occurred. On the other hand, results confirmed that the population increased and that land prices maintained in residential induction areas where flood damage had not occurred. Based on the findings presented above, setting priorities for induction using indices such as flood depths within the residential induction areas is regarded as a future measure.

Since the management of regional railways in Japan is generally difficult, there are problems with network services such as frequency of operation, and several routes have been abolished. Under such circumstances, in recent years, some routes have been maintained by the vertical separation measures, but there are problems with convenience such as the frequency of operation. In order to make the city sustainable, it is necessary to take measures to enable sustainable and highly convenient operation services, and the public-private role sharing method will be effective. The method requires ensuring the appropriateness of the amount of public funds, ensuring the fairness of entry into operation, and the possibility of continuous entry by existing operators. Therefore, we will clarify the operation entry procedure that meets the above requirements and makes the management of the operator sound and sustainable, based on the knowledge of regional requirements, regional contribution, etc. in public procurement.

Although personal mobility is expected to mainstream in the future, no studies have explored the CO₂ emissions of such means of transport. This study estimated the CO₂ equivalent basis of Micro Electric Vehicles (MEV), Electric Kickboards, and Electric Bicycles based on the Life Cycle Assessment method (LCA) to address the gap in the literature. Furthermore, we constructed a method for assessing changes in CO₂ emissions when alternating the transport modes accompanied with the last mile personal mobility. It was found that changing from a private car to public transportation (railway or bus) plus personal mobility could only reduce CO₂ emissions if fewer than two passengers are in a private vehicle.

Japan is likely to experience large earthquakes in the near future. In addition to direct damage to human lives and social capital, there is concern that Japan may suffer enormous indirect damage due to stagnation of economic activities after the earthquake. Faster recovery is required to minimize indirect damage. However, there is insufficient research on specific methods and their effects. This study examines the impact of enhancing expressway networks on the speed of recovery of social activities after the earthquake. We conducted a logistic regression analysis of the effect of expressway accessibility on the recovery of general road links that were broken by the earthquake using actual road traffic data after the Great East Japan Earthquake. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant trend toward recovery. Therefore it is suggested that the enhancing expressway networks is effective for the early recovery of road traffic after the earthquake.

In rural areas, it is necessary for local communities to plan and carry out activities to secure living services such as transportation and food delivery. These are called mutual assistance activities. The feasibility of the activities may be influenced by community characteristics such as culture. Therefore, not all communities can carry out these activities immediately. To realize the activities, local governments are required to promote the characteristics to increase the feasibility of the activities. However, what should be specifically promoted is unclear because the relationship between the characteristics and the feasibility of the activities is unknown. In this study, we focus on the psychological safety proposed in the field of organizational behavior as a characteristic. Then how the psychological safety contributes to the feasibility of the activity is examined using multivariate analysis.

In the near future, it is expected to become difficult to memory transference of disasters, wars, and nuclear accidents. Furthermore, five years have passed since the Kumamoto earthquake, and the fading of memories has become an issue. The objective of this study is to clarify the structure of memory restorying triggered by the Kumamoto earthquake using the Crossroads Game workshop. As a result of the research, it was found that re-storying is possible to talk about the experiences of others in addition to one's own experiences. In other words, it was important for the narrator to willingly verbalize "memories and experiences of the past to be told," even if they were the experiences of others. The results of the analysis of the process of re-storying the story could be classified into four types: self-experienced, other-experienced, hearsay, and imagined.

This paper presents the “Flood Protection Action Plan 2020Plus” of the State of Bavaria, Germany, to accumulate knowledge on river basin disaster resilience and sustainability by all, and clarifies the structure and contents of the action plan based on the framework of the state’s flood control projects and past floods. The major features of the plan are the establishment of a highly sustainable flood control system based on the four cycles of “post-flood countermeasures,” “flood damage avoidance,” “flood protection,” and “flood damage prevention,” and the establishment of a resilient flood control system through countermeasures against floods in excess of planned flooding. It also pointed out the important roles of the “inundation area” system for flood control in the entire basin: clarification of flood protection areas, creation of natural flood plains by restoring river channels, and enhancement of flood control functions by constructing flood control basin for excess flooding.

Considering the healthy city development, the ministry of health, labour and welfare have determined the targets in Health Japan 21 for national health. There are “extension of average life expectancy and healthy life expectancy” and “reduction of deference between average life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Health promotion policy with walking has been proposed to increase healthy life expectancy. The study aims at creating the advanced estimation model for average life expectancy and healthy life expectancy according to the background. The stepwise linear regression analysis as well as neural network model are applied to create the estimation model for healthy life expectancy. In particular, the database of healthy life expectancy for municipalities in Osaka prefecture is obtained to create the quantitative estimation model. Finally, the impact of health promotion policy concerning with previous two targets of average life expectancy and healthy life expectancy would be confirmed since the travel behaviour change of cities gives the extension of healthy life expectancy.

The importance of liveliness in Japan’s urban centers by creating comfortable walking spaces has been recognized. While various measures are being developed to create liveliness, pedestrian traffic volume is often taken up as one of the indicators to evaluate such measures. In urban areas with underground malls, the method using Wi-Fi Packets Receiver is considered the most suitable for observing pedestrian traffic, considering its simplicity and cost. Therefore, this study conducted walking observation using Wi-Fi Packets Receivers in the vicinity of a station with underground malls, and compared the observed values with statistical values, and analyzed the differences in route selection due to differences in weather conditions and days of the week, etc. As a result, even in March 2021, when the MAC addresses were randomized, the observed values from the Wi-Fi Packets Receivers were consistent with general pedestrian mobility characteristics, and the effectiveness of using Wi-Fi Packets Receivers was confirmed.

In Japan, many road infrastructures are rapidly aging that were built after the high economic growth period, so it will be an important issue to maintain the road network safely and sustainably. However, we have to decrease the maintenance costs caused by the tight financial resources of local governments. In this study, we estimated the long-term maintenance costs of bridges in Kofu urban area by predicting degradation of bridges and clarified the lack of financial resources. Then we examined the possibility of reducing maintenance costs by changing the route from local roads to highways, which have high load-bearing.

In snowy and cold regions, piled snow on road shoulders may cause traffic congestion and even traffic accidents, and can be a serious problem in maintaining the functionality of urban transportation. In order to maintain the effective width of roads during the winter, piled snow on the road shoulders is removed and cleared, but getting road information requires great deal of time and manpower. In this paper, we propose a method for classifying the effective road width, which is narrowed by piled snow on road shoulders, based on videos captured from an in-vehicle cameras using features focused on piled snow. Estimating road narrowing conditions from in-vehicle cameras will enable ordinary vehicles to collect road information and create an environment that does not require a great deal time or manpower to gather road information.

The Japanese Maglev has been constructing and the Yamanashi Terminal will be constructed in Yamanashi. It is expected that many people will come to Yamanashi for sightseeing or business purposes by being constructed the terminal in Yamanashi and it will have great economic effects. To achieve that, it is necessary to construct the access transportations from the Yamanashi Terminal to various regions in Yamanashi. In this paper, we try to evaluate it from the Yamanashi Terminal to the Fuji Hokuroku area, which is the largest sightseeing place in Yamanashi. Because the Kofu urban area and the Fuji Hokuroku area are different urban area, we applied the Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) model. However previous SCGE model can not apply to small municipalities. So in this paper, we built the Inter municipality input-output table and developed the SCGE model for small municipalities. And we evaluated the access transportation from the Yamanashi Terminal to Fuji Hokuroku area.

In recent years, huge typhoons and heavy rains has been reported frequently, and the importance of advance evacuation planning for residents has been increasing. In this study, we develop an optimal evacuation planning model for inundation disasters that can be useful as reference information for district disaster prevention plans. The proposed model solves a linear programming problem to optimize the total evacuation time and the sum of service levels of evacuation shelters. The optimization problem represents evacuee behavior unique to flooding disaster evacuation, such as shelter in place and evacuation to private facilities, and provides a more realistic method for evacuation planning. The performance of the model was verified on a virtual network, and it was confirmed that the model is capable of planning evacuation plans that take into account the congestion rate of evacuation shelters, and that it can analyze the impact of the capacity of private facilities for evacuation shelters. Application of the model to the road network of Sapporo City confirmed that the computational load was small enough for a general-purpose computer.

As needs for street design improvement have become diversified, it increasingly important to clarify the relationship between the objective indicators of street design and the subjective evaluations. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the objective indicators, measured by image recognition, and the subjective evaluations. First, the indicators of image recognition are measured, using the image data of various streets, to be classified into the street scenes with cluster analysis. Then, we analyze the relationship of the objective indicators with the subjective evaluations with multiple regression analysis. As a result, the streets were classified into street scenes by the amount of people and car, and the objective indicators from image recognition, including the scene indicators, accounted for the quantitative and qualitative subjective evaluations.

In this study, we quantify the effects of place-based policy on the population distribution and regional economy in Japan, and conduct post-evaluation. For this purpose, we construct a model based on quantitative spatial economics (QSE) that is capable of representing inter-regional population mobility and agglomeration economies, and analyzed the effects of four types of place-based policy. Using the model, we conducted a counterfactual analysis in which no place-based policy had been implemented. The results suggest that the place-based policy alleviated the inter-regional disparity in the number of workers, while the total real income decreased, and that the effects of the place-based policy were not limited to short-term effects but persisted over the long term.

In recent years, transportation big data, which can be obtained 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, have been utilized as complementary data to statistical surveys. Although data on the flow of a population have been utilized in urban planning, most studies are limited to the mere understanding of the flow from a departure point to an arrival point and its attributes, and there have been few reports on the practical application in existing research. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to expand the application of transportation big data by developing a new method of utilizing flow population data. Specifically, we developed a method to classify cities, towns, and villages by regional characteristics using population flow statistics that can grasp the total amount of trips between areas based on the flow population data alone. A comparison of the developed method with regional classification based on a cluster analysis of multiple census data confirmed the usefulness of the developed method. Furthermore, a use-case analysis was conducted to devise a process for utilizing this method.

This study focuses on the optimization of pavement repair policy for highway networks simultaneously considering repair costs and user costs. Optimal pavement repair policy for highway networks difficult to derive has difficulties in derivation, interpretation, and application because of the combinatorial explosion of the condition state of the links. This study proposes a heuristic method based on grouping and state aggregation. Grouping of road links and adequate aggregation of condition state of the links enable us to avoid the combinatorial explosion. Therefore, we can derive a easily interpretable policies that take into account the repair cost and user cost, which may depend on the structure. Numerical examples show that the optimal policies obtained by the proposed method are superior to other methods’ policies.

The purpose of this study is to quantitatively understand the impact of tourism projects on the destination using a logic model, with a view to supporting strategic tourism destination management. First, the impact of tourism projects is shown as a ripple process for Kamakura City. Qualitative factors are included in the process. Next, the causal relation among the factors in the ripple process is determined by a questionnaire using the numerical allocation method. We derive the tourism projects to realize the desired tourism destination. The recursive process is represented as a sum of infinite series of matrices. As a result, it was found that the influence of “uncovering the charm and value of Kamakura” and “balancing citizen's life and tourism” were significant.

The purpose of this study is to present the promotion measures for “warehouse renovation” in “Minato Oasis”, which is the measures for regional revitalization of ports in Japan. This study was conducted a literature survey and a hearing survey on 139 ports registered in “Minato Oasis” regarding the range where the constituent facilities of “Minato Oasis” and the ports with “warehouse renovation”. As a result, it clarified below; (1) Two port types, “port area limited type” and “port and city integrated type” in “Minato Oasis”, (2) Actual utilization of renovation warehouses in each port type, (3) It is important for the revitalization of “Minato Machi” that the “warehouse renovation” is based on characteristics of the “Minato Oasis” registration area.

Shinto rituals play various roles that include community revitalization and tourism. The Agency for Cultural Affairs is providing financial and institutional support for preserving and utilizing Shinto rituals. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, along with the increasingly worsening population decline, is expected to affect the continuation of Shinto rituals strongly. For this study, we conducted a literature survey of Shinto rituals performed in Ibaraki Prefecture 30 years ago to elucidate the actual conditions of inheritance and extinction of Shinto rituals. We analyzed factors underlying their inheritance and extinction. Results indicated that the ritual types, regional characteristics, and shrine grade influenced the inheritance and extinction of Shinto rituals, although the decline of populations around shrines did not. Interviews with successors revealed that some Shinto rituals are being carried out because of the existence of preservation associations and reduction of individual burdens imposed by duty systems, even under circumstances in which it is considered difficult to carry on the traditions.

Along with the spread of COVID-19 infection, “dispersal to the suburbs” of places of residence has occurred in the Tokyo metropolitan area. For this study, we defined a “corona relocation group” as people affected psychologically by COVID-19. We examined the influences of group attributes on their choices of residence location, and clarified changes in factors required for the place of residence through an original survey of their mentality. Specifically, we compared the respective mentalities of the “corona relocation group” and a “other relocation group” for each relocation destination with different characteristics. Results indicated the following characteristics of the “corona relocation group”: 1) When choosing a medium-tohigh- rise exclusive residential district that is far from a station and which has high bus convenience, their goal in moving tended to be a larger house or resolving uncomfortable living conditions in their place of residence. They tended to emphasize access to train stations and the central city area. 2) When choosing the urbanization control area, their relocation tended to emphasize reduced housing costs and resolving uncomfortable living conditions of the place of residence. They tended to assign importance to avoidance of closed spaces, crowded places, closed-contact settings.

In this study, focused on the expanded urbanized area after 1989, we clarified the relationship with the disaster risk for 11 local cities and analyzed the characteristics of the population and households who live in this area. As a result, we showed that there were local governments that have no choice but to expand the urbanized area even if they know that there is a disaster risk. In the expanded urbanized area, households with children in their 30s to 50s tend to build and locate detached homes.

This study aims to clarify the impact of the agglomeration of business activities and buildings on office rents, along with their changes over time. An analysis of office market data from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2021 demonstrates that the business activity aggregation positively impacts rents, while excessive building density has a negative effect. The results indicate no specific changes due to COVID-19, suggesting that the impact of aggregation depends considerably on market conditions such as rising or falling rents. The findings reveal the existence of economies and diseconomies of agglomeration in the Tokyo office market and highlight the importance of intensive land use. However, the impact of COVID-19 on the market structure may still be latent, the market trends require close monitoring in the future.

This study investigates the effect of memory integration on the recognition of historical buildings based on laboratory experiments. Previous research has supported that remembering causes forgetting of other information in memory; this memory phenomenon is called retrieval-induced forgetting, and retrieval-induced forgetting is improved by memory integration that considers similarities of information; this phenomenon is called retrieval-induced facilitation. This study aims to demonstrate that non-integration of historical architectural memory causes retrieval-induced forgetting resulting in forgetting of historical buildings and that integrating historical architectural memory causes retrieval-induced facilitation resulting in improving building forgetting by retrieval-practiced paradigm. The results showed that the non-integration of historical architectural memory causes forgetting of historical buildings and that integrating historical architectural memory causes improving building forgetting.

In this study, we conducted a review of previous studies on the relationship between residential environment and birth, and examined the possibility of the impact of residential environment on birth rate. In addition, we analyzed the relationship between residential environment and birth in the past residence history using Web questionnaire survey data on birth in Tokyo metropolitan area. From the literature review, it was confirmed that the birth rate tended to be lower in urban areas with larger population, and the influence of the adaptation hypothesis and socialization hypothesis was seen on migration to urban areas in Japan. In the analysis of the relationship between residential environment and birth based on the results of the Web questionnaire survey, rental housing and household size showed positive significance for birth. In addition, educational background showed a significant relationship on marriage and the birth of the first child, but the annual household income was not significant. Regarding residential environment variables, the primary industry density showed positive significance for marriage and the birth of the first child.

As there has been a growing need for walking due to car-dependent lifestyle and the pandemic health risk, walkable street development is being promoted. The development is more in commercial areas, and there may be more walking opportunities in leisure activities because of the large activity area. However, the activities are likely to be limited inside the facilities, which results in few opportunities for outdoor walking. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of street design on willingness to walk and stay outdoors in leisure activities with the video evaluation. We conducted an online questionnaire survey to evaluate various streetscapes around leisure facilities with 360 videos to analyze the relationship between street design and walking willingness. As a result, it was found that the comfort is most influential for the leisure walk in the video evaluation, which is particularly the case of people with more leisure experience.

In recent years, there has been a growing movement to promote regional development by making the most of local resources, one of which is Eco-tourism. Eco-tourism is expected to be promoted as an important policy that simultaneously realizes environmental conservation, tourism promotion, and regional revitalization. The purpose of this study is to gain knowledge on sustainability of Eco-tourism by focusing on a dolphin-watching project in the Futae district, Itsuwa Town, Amakusa City. Therefore, we conducted an interview survey of dolphin-watching operators and fishermen, organized the transition of their relationship with local resources, and analyzed their value recognition of local resources. As a result, it is clear that sustainability of Eco-tourism has been revealed to be the continuation of a mutual understanding between resource utilisers, who have maintained loose links and a sense of shared value recognition and co-prosperity towards local resources.

In the amusement quarter, where a variety of facilities related to nightlife activities are located in a mixed manner, many cases of infection are confirmed to be caused by kaiyu between these facilities under the COVID-19 crisis. Although ease of kaiyu between facilities is thought to affect the risk of infection spread, there are not sufficient research of facility location characteristics by a type of nightlife activities and ease of kaiyu based on facility layout for amusement quarters. In this paper, we visualized the layout of facilities, and evaluated the proximity of each nightlife activity to understand the characteristics of the current facility locations of several famous amusement quarters in Japan. In addition, we developed a method for evaluating the ease of kaiyu using a unique kaiyu model for amusement quarters, and compared the ease of kaiyu of several amusement quarters and analyzed the effects of scenarios such as closure using the kaiyu model. According to the research, we gain insight into the layout of facilities in amusement quarters that contribute to the prevention of the spread of infectious diseases.

After the Sanriku tsunami of 1933, several tsunami countermeasures were proposed by the government and researchers. In Miyagi Prefecture, relocation to higher ground and measures such as breakwaters and seawalls were also planned. But the seawalls were constructed in a limited number of areas. In this study, we analyzed the commonalities among the targeted areas, and examined tsunami damage, relocation to higher ground, development plans, and road conditions. As a result, it was clarified that the priority purpose of the seawall installation plan in Miyagi Prefecture was not only the protection of human lives and local area, but also the protection of prefectural roads.

Although Japan’s population is declining, the final size of the population remains unknown. Concerns have arisen about the decline of urban functions in central cities, especially in rural areas. Therefore, it is extremely important to understand the minimum population and population density at which urban functions can continue to exist. For this study, the minimum population and minimum population density of the induction areas for which urban functions can be sustained were examined based on location probabilities. The analysis revealed a location trend for each facility within the core areas. Threshold values were ascertained based on those. Compared to existing states of actual sites, some sites do not meet the thresholds. It is possible to consider the focused population concentration and a review of the site setting.

The development of flying car is promoted around the world. However, it is not clear what the spread of flying car affect lives of the people. Therefore, this study clarified how the transportation of flying car reduce the amount of time focusing on the access for hospital visit in secondary medical region. As a result, it is suggested that the effect of transportation of flying car on municipalities with a population of 5,000 or less, a late aging rate of 20% or more and travel time of 60 minutes or more to the hospital is great. And then, it is also suggested that the effect of transportation of flying car on municipalities with a population of 10,000 or more, a late aging rate of 20% or less and travel time of 30 minutes or less to the hospital is small.

Although input-output tables can provide a detailed picture of the economic structure of countries or regions, it is unclear how transactions involving the movement of people are treated. The purpose of this thesis is to propose a consistent way of handling passengers transport, referring to how to create physical distribution date. We first describes the structure and concept of the Input-Output table, and explains how transportation activities are accounted for in the Input-Output table in terms of two price evaluation methods. Next, we focuses on the details of freight transportation among the transportation activities and explains how freight transportation transactions are accounted for in the transport sector of the Input-Output table. Moreover, we focus on passengers transport, which have not been explicitly treated in the Input-Output table. We propose a consistent method of treating passengers transport with the domestic passenger fare table we created . The Domestic Passenger Fare Table provides total passenger fare each industries pay to purchase the service.

In Japan, the number of elderly driver's license holders is increasing with the aging of the population. There are some preferential treatment systems for license returners, and voluntary returners are supported by local governments. The number of voluntary returnees is increasing. Driving cessation among older people is associated with decreased activity and mobility, and exerts the risk of functional limitation. In this study, we considered that regional characteristics affect the means of transportation and QOL of voluntary returners, and analyzed the effects of means of transportation and QOL of voluntary returners. The case study was conducted in one rural and one urban area. As a result, using bicycles affected the QOL of voluntary returners. Voluntary returners in urban areas have a higher quality of life and more frequency of going out than voluntary returners in rural areas. In addition, voluntary returners in urban areas are easier to go shopping and go to the hospital than voluntary returners in rural areas.

Probe data is attracting attention to detect vehicles with abnormal behaviour caused by disasters or traffic accidents. This is because probe data can collect data over a wider area and narrower streets than conventional installed sensors. This study uses commercial vehicle probe data in dot format, which does not require map-matching. A method is proposed for detecting vehicles whose behaviour differs from daily life in terms of similarity calculated by converting the trajectory vehicle dot data into a string. As an example of a situation where abnormal behaviour is likely to occur, the proposed method was applied to actual expressway road closures and lane restrictions. The analysis results showed that similarity based on the Levenshtein distance index of the fifth mesh detected abnormal behaviour, including detours and speed changes with high accuracy.

This paper aims to quantitatively grasp the demand emerged from introducing mobility services integrations into Chinese tourists’ inbound market. For achieving the goal, MXL model is applied to the 2020 WEB survey data for representing the intention of visit-to-Japan and tourism destinations in the EXPO 2025. It also intends to analyze how extent we can effectively create the demand for the overseas travels in the period of post-corona society in China. The attitudinal and intentional attributes against the COVID-19 are then targeted at verifying whether they can significantly determine the intention of visit-to-Japan and tourism destinations through the MXL model specification.

Physical activity (PA) associated with daily trips contributes to health. For that reason, urban development that induces more daily trips has been promoted recently. However, the COVID-19 pandemic altered people’s transportation behavior and changed their amounts of related PA. A multiple regression model was applied to assess effects of urban characters and to evaluate individual attributes’ effects on workers’ PA change during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results show that urban area scales, relations among surrounding cities, work style, and car ownership significantly affect workers’ PA change. Preventing workers from sudden PA reduction during pandemics in urban areas is expected to be crucially important, as will be the necessity of providing continuous support for teleworkers by promoting ways of ensuring daily PA.

Extending healthy life expectancy by maintaining the physical functions of elderly people is being promoted. Therefore, one must ascertain the actual situation of people’s behavior of going out of the house not only in terms of aging, but also in terms of physical difficulty. This study compared actual conditions of going out according to the degree of physical difficulty using the 6th Tokyo Person Trip Survey. Results indicated that an increased degree of physical difficulty engenders a decrease in the rate of going out, increased dependence on car use, increased monotony of travel purposes, and shortening of travel times. Future populations with physical difficulties are estimated to increase considerably by 2040. Moreover, these difficulties are expected to become increasingly severe in the future. However, the study results also indicated the possibility of mitigating the worsening situation by extending healthy life expectancy.

Discrete choice models are a useful method for understanding human choice behavior based on random utility theory, and have been used in various fields including transportation planning. However, discrete choice models emphasize theory and interpretability, which limits their ability to construct highly accurate models. In this study, we attempt to construct a forecasting method that excels in both “accuracy” and “interpretability” by improving forecasting accuracy with the aid of machine learning and by using an interpretative index that indicates the model’s forecasting basis. Specifically, we constructed a transportation mode selection model using a neural network, and attempted to construct a model that is interpretable and has superior forecasting accuracy by applying interpretative indices such as PD and SHAP. As a result, the model has higher prediction accuracy and more detailed interpretability than conventional models, and is expected to contribute to the advancement of policy evaluation.

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is expected to play a role in promoting increased opportunities for going out trips by integrating fare systems across different transport modes. In this study, the method of Tabuchi and Fukuda (2020) was expanded to evaluate the changes in people’s activities and the impact of the subscription service due to the introduction of MaaS. We constructed an activity-based model of railway users that explicitly considered it. For the Tokyo metropolitan area, we conducted a simulation to predict changes in people's activities due to the introduction of MaaS and to estimate the subscription fee level maximum to customers. The results suggest that MaaS has a certain amount of effect in promoting detours, and that the willingness to pay subscription fees is higher for women and young people under the age of 20.

Each driver decides the next driving policy from the surrounding situation and performs driving behavior based on that idea. In other words, the driver forms a driving intention in consideration of the surrounding environment and perform an operation. In addition, since the driver needs to pay attention not only to his own vehicle but also to the behavior of surrounding vehicles that need to be predicted in motion, then driving is stressful to the driver. It is possible that this stress may affect driving intentions and driving behavior. In this way, it is considered that “driving behavior”, “driving intention”, “surrounding traffic conditions”, and “stress” influence each other in capturing a series of driving behaviors. In this study, we analyzed the effects of these four behaviors on each other and obtained findings on their relationships.

Introducing a new transportation system such as LRT (Light Rail Transit) affects the traffic and landuse in the urban area. In this study, we propose a parameter estimation method for a unified transportation and landuse equilibrium model that enables an impact analysis of introducing LRT. Then, we apply the method to Kanazawa City, estimate the parameters, and examine the applicability of the method when introducing LRT in Kanazawa City.

Between 2020 and 2021, intercity travel in Japan continued to change significantly due to the covid-19 pandemic. In some periods, the Japanese national government requested the citizens to stop inter-city travel, and in some periods, the government promoted travel by subsidizing it. People’s reactions during these periods provide important evidence for future policies. In this study, we hypothesize that changes in travel behavior during this period can be represented by changes in the coefficients of a simple gravity model. As a result, we found the following three characteristics of Japanese inter-city travel under the pandemic. 1) The increase in variance during the pandemic period is mainly explained by the proposed model. 2) In all periods under the pandemic, more distant travel was avoided. 3) In some periods under the pandemic, travel was more concentrated in zones with larger populations than before the pandemic.

In recent years, the data available for road network analysis has become more sophisticated and detailed, backed by improved computer performance and observation technology. In Japan, road network data with high resolution is also available, and the computational cost for analysis is an issue. In this study, a simple method for network reduction is developed for large-scale networks. Specifically, we assume the existence of a community core node, such as a centroid, which is set as a representative point of demand generation concentration in each community, and aim to shrink the entire network by aggregating the nodes in the community. The Gomory-Hu tree is used to identify communities, giving a partition such that the boundaries between communities have the smallest capacity. The proposed method is applied to the North Sea road network to check its behaviour.

The Nationwide Person Trip (PT) survey provides essential information on trip characteristics across Japan over time, and validating the accuracy of this information is crucial. This study compares the survey on time use and leisure activities (questionnaire B) from 2001–2016 with the nationwide PT survey corre-sponding to the same period. Activity locations were available in questionnaire B, enabling us to develop a method for estimating the number of trips from the survey data. Three outputs were compared: immobility (i.e., people who stayed at home on a given day) rates, temporal profiles of individual-based out-of-home rates, and trip rates (average number of trips per day). The results revealed the trip rate discrepancy between the two surveys: 0.70–0.82 trips on weekdays and 0.85–1.19 trips on holidays. The results also indicated that the nationwide PT survey often suffers from trip-misreporting for discretionary and home returning trips, particularly on holidays. The frequency of trip-misreporting appears to increase over time, particularly among the younger generation (i.e., 20–39 years old).

Travel modes for airport access should be fast and punctual; however, road-based travel tends to be less punctual than railways due to road congestion. Road-based transport users generally arrive at an airport early to be on time for boarding, and may therefore stay there for an extended period of time; however, the actual situation remains unknown. This study aims to: 1) develop a method for estimating the time spent at an airport using GPS data, and 2) analyze the spent time differences among airports and access modes. The target airports are Kumamoto Airport, without a railway; and Haneda Airport, with various access modes. The results revealed that road-based transport users spent longer at the airport than railway users. The method and results could be useful for evaluating an airport access railway project in the future.

Reducing opportunities for contact with others by restricting outings is one of the approaches to prevent the spread of infectious diseases. Under COVID-19, a decrease in outing activity was observed even though Japan’s measures to reduce outings were not legally binding. We speculate that one of the reasons for this is the “social influence” that causes individuals to identify with the group to which they belong. It has already been shown that individuals become sympathetic to others’ refraining from going out when they are aware of it. In this study, we used the “DOCOMO mobile spatial statistics” generated from the operational data of cell phones and tried to estimate the social influence by using the actual data on going-out self-restraint behavior of others. The results indicated that there were two types of outing purposes: those in which individuals were sympathetic to the group’s voluntary curfew situation, and those in which they were repulsed by it.

Small electric mobility is becoming more popular due to its low environmental impact and high social inclusion potential. It increases transportation options that can be used for a variety of trip types, from short commutes to first- and last-mile connections to transit. In this study, panel analysis was conducted to analyze mobility users’ changes in behavioral patterns across spatial and temporal dimensions. Data was collected through a demonstration experiment in which electric two-wheelers were rented out to participants. This study further evaluated the relationships between behavioral patterns, user attitudes, and personal attributes. The conducted analysis helped gain insights on user adoption as well as the social impacts of the emerging electric mobility services.

Optimal operation of demand-responsive transport and mobility services requires the accurate prediction of variable transportation demands, rather than the average transportation demand. This study focuses route search data for public transportation. The data on routes searched by prospective travelers on public transportation route search systems while planning trips can be indicative of intended travel routes in the near future, which may be used to predict fluctuations in transportation demands. In this context, this study proposes a model to forecast daily fluctuations in transportation demands based on route search data and verifies its effectiveness. The Kagawa Prefecture and the “Kotoden” rail system are selected as the target region and target transportation system, respectively. In this study, in addition to route search data, traffic IC card data is used to estimate the number of public transportation users during empirical analysis. Specifically, 1) a bivariate state-space model is used to identify fluctuations in the number of route searches and the number of uses of traffic IC cards, and 2) a weighted regression model is used to quantify the relationships between the fluctuations. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model is compared with those of existing methods, revealing an improvement. In addition, the high accuracy of traffic demand prediction achieved using the proposed method demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model and shows the useful of route search data as an indicator of variation in traffic demand.

In recent years, social changes have accelerated due to the advancement of technology and the promotion of diverse work styles. In light of these circumstances, it is necessary to consider the aggregate amount of human behavior using the four-step estimation method as in the past and understand the behavioral characteristics of individuals and consider the actual situation in society. In this study, we proposed an estimation method that enables more accurate policy evaluation and demand forecasting at a lower cost, using activity simulations that can reproduce an individual's daily activities and take into account the linkage of trips, and observation data of traffic conditions, the types and amount of which have increased dramatically in recent years. By applying this method to the Tokyo metropolitan area, the forecasting accuracy was improved and the usefulness of supplementing observation data to activity simulation was confirmed.