EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY CHARACTERISTIC OF THE STRAIN OCCUREED IN THE ASPHALT PAVEMENT USING THE MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Abstract

 In this study, to evaluate the influence of variability of the design variable on calculated strain for asphalt pavement, Monte Carlo simulation was demonstrated. The results are summarized as follows. (1) The design parameters having the greatest influence on the horizontal strain variability at the bottom of the asphalt layer are asphalt elastic modulus, base elastic modulus and asphalt thickness. (2) The design parameters having the greatest influence on the vertical strain variability at the top of the subgrade are layer thickness, subgrade elastic modulus and subgrade Poisson’s ratio. (3) In the case of thick asphalt layer, it was confirmed that the coefficient of variation of the strain became the constant value without depending on pavement structure and elastic modulus if coefficient of variation of each design variable was given. (4) On the other hand, when thickness of asphalt layer was thin, coefficient of variation of the strain greatly changed depending on pavement structure and elastic modulus.